India’s clean energy transition will depend not just on how much renewable power it generates, but also on whether it can secure the minerals needed to build that future. Lithium, cobalt, nickel, graphite, copper and rare earth elements are becoming strategic assets as electric mobility, battery manufacturing and renewable energy expand. Yet, with demand for critical minerals projected to rise four to ten times by 2047, India faces a challenge that extends well beyond mining: building a resilient domestic ecosystem that can withstand global supply disruptions.

A recent Grant Thornton report estimates that electric vehicle battery demand alone could reach 110–130 GWh by 2030. Meeting this requirement, alongside India’s target of 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by the same year, will intensify pressure on mineral supplies. The ambition to achieve Net Zero emissions by 2070 makes the task even more urgent. Excessive dependence on imported minerals and processed materials could expose Indian industry to geopolitical tensions, volatile prices and export restrictions.

The National Critical Mineral Mission (NCMM), backed by an outlay of Rs34,300 crore, is an important step towards addressing these vulnerabilities. But policy intent must translate into capabilities across the entire value chain, from exploration and extraction to refining, separation, recycling and advanced manufacturing. Mining alone will not deliver strategic autonomy if higher-value processing remains concentrated overseas.

Financing is a crucial missing link. Critical mineral projects, particularly refining and recycling facilities, require substantial capital, involve technological risks and often take years to become commercially viable. Grant Thornton recommends a diversified financing architecture involving sovereign green bonds, fiscal incentives, foreign direct investment, venture capital, bank lending supported by guarantees and multilateral funding. India should also consider a dedicated sovereign critical minerals fund, drawing lessons from countries such as Canada, to support strategically important projects that private capital may initially find unattractive. Equally important is the opportunity presented by recycling. According to UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD), the global market for recycled critical minerals could expand from nearly $40 billion in 2020 to $200 billion by 2050. India should seize this opportunity by developing systems for collecting, recovering and reprocessing materials from used batteries, electronic waste and industrial scrap. A domestic recycling economy potentially worth $10–15 billion annually would reduce import dependence, conserve resources and create new industrial capabilities. Recycling, however, requires clear standards, predictable regulations and investment in collection and processing infrastructure.

Domestic capacity must be complemented by strategic overseas partnerships. India cannot assume that its geological resources alone will satisfy future demand. Government-to-government agreements, long-term offtake contracts, public-private partnerships with global miners and investments in overseas mining and processing assets can diversify supply. Trade policy, too, must be deployed strategically to secure access while encouraging domestic value addition. As Rabin Roy, founder-managing director of ScholarLab Foundation, points out, the challenge is not merely rising demand, but also who controls processing and captures economic value. Mineral-rich developing economies risk remaining exporters of raw materials while others reap the gains from processing and manufacturing.

Finally, fragmented policymaking must give way to coordinated execution. The Ministries of Mines, Finance, Environment, Commerce, External Affairs, Power and New and Renewable Energy, among others, need a common strategic framework. Environmental safeguards and community interests must remain integral to faster project development.

India’s critical minerals strategy should be judged not by the tonnes it extracts, but by the value it creates, the supply risks it reduces and the industries it builds. Strategic self-reliance will require capital, technological depth and global partnerships. The race for critical minerals is ultimately a race to secure the foundations of India’s clean energy and industrial future.