On Jio Platforms’ IPO-driven foreign inflows and a relatively weak US dollar

Mumbai

Therupee surged 48 paise to close at 94.43 (provisional) against the US dollar on Wednesday, supported by foreign currency inflows linked to Reliance Industries’ Jio Platforms IPO and RBI intervention to contain dollar demand. However, forex trade analysts said weak domestic markets and higher crude oil prices were putting pressure on the rupee.

At the interbank foreign exchange market, the rupee opened at 94.78 against the dollar. In intraday trade, it touched a high of 94.41 and a low of 94.82 against the American unit. It eventually settled at 94.43 (provisional) against the greenback, up 48 paise from its previous close. The Indian currency earlier recorded a similar closing level on September 4.

On Monday, the rupee settled lower by 2 paise at 94.91 against the US dollar. Forex markets were closed on Tuesday on account of Dussehra. “The rupee rose to a six-week high on IPO-driven foreign inflows and a relatively weak US dollar. However, weak domestic markets and elevated crude oil prices capped sharp gains,” said Anuj Choudhary, Research Analyst, Mirae Asset Sharekhan. He further said that the rupee is expected to trade with a positive bias on overall weakness in the dollar and softening of US treasury yields. “USD-INR spot price is expected to trade in a range of Rs 94.20 to Rs 94.80.”

According to analysts, a stronger rupee can ease imported inflation and reduce currency-related costs for companies importing crude, electronics and other raw materials. It may also benefit sectors such as aviation and oil marketing, although the actual impact depends on their hedging positions and pricing.

“Foreign investors participating in large IPOs typically sell dollars to acquire rupees, increasing dollar supply in the domestic foreign exchange market. The RBI has also supported the currency through measures aimed at reducing spot-market dollar demand from oil companies and managing excessive exchange-rate volatility,” said Gaurav Garg, Head of Research at brokerage platform Lemonn.

However, the recovery faces significant challenges as Brent crude prices climbed above USD 110 per barrel amid renewed Middle East tensions and concerns over potential supply disruptions, he added.

Going forward, the sustainability of the rupee’s recovery will depend on the continuation of IPO-related inflows, RBI intervention, crude oil prices, foreign portfolio flows and US dollar movements, Garg said.

Meanwhile, the dollar index, which gauges the greenback’s strength against a basket of six currencies, was trading higher by 0.07 per cent at 101.59.