TheBJP has now shifted its focus to the Uttar Pradesh Assembly elections, scheduled for early 2027. While the two principal campaigners, Chief Minister Yogi Adityanath and Samajwadi Party (SP) chief Akhilesh Yadav, have launched full-fledged campaigns, the Congress is yet to get its campaign off the ground.

The grand old party, which has been out of power in Uttar Pradesh for decades and lacks a strong cadre base and a substantial independent vote base, depends largely on its central leadership, particularly Rahul Gandhi and Priyanka Gandhi Vadra.

In the 2022 Assembly elections, Priyanka Gandhi Vadra was entrusted with leading the Congress campaign. A late start and the lack of a robust organisational structure took their toll. Although her rallies drew crowds, the party failed to convert that response into votes. It won just two seats, with its vote share plunging to around 2.25 per cent from 6.25 per cent in 2017.

Meanwhile, Rahul Gandhi, the Leader of the Opposition in the Lok Sabha, who had until recently been involved in the opposition's campaign over alleged “vote chori” and the protests against the Special Intensive Revision (SIR) of electoral rolls in Delhi, has reportedly travelled to Vietnam. There has been no official clarification on whether the visit is a vacation or has another purpose. The Congress, which routinely demands transparency from the government, has not publicly explained the reason for his trip. Even Congress MP Shashi Tharoor reacted to the uncertainty, saying, “I am not his travel agent.”

Yogi, by contrast, has embarked on an intensive tour of Uttar Pradesh and is making concerted efforts to connect with voters. His speeches highlight the transformation of the state, which he argues has moved from backwardness towards greater development.

The BJP's internal surveys reportedly point to several factors that the party needs to address. These include agricultural distress, which Akhilesh Yadav has also highlighted in his speeches; the possibility of a broader opposition coalition built around caste-based mobilisation; internal differences within the state BJP; and coordination gaps between MPs and MLAs in some constituencies.

The SP, meanwhile, hopes to capitalise on issues such as “vote chori” and alleged “chanda chori”, or irregularities in political funding, while seeking to win over Generation Z. However, these themes may not deliver the results the party expects. Some surveys have reportedly suggested that the impact of the “vote chori” issue has been limited, though the findings and methodologies would need to be examined before drawing firm conclusions. The appeal to Gen Z, too, risks remaining a slogan unless it translates into greater support among young voters.

At the same time, employment generation and industrial investment could help the BJP contain anti-incumbency. The state government's efforts to attract industries in manufacturing and information technology, along with employment generated directly and indirectly, form a central part of its development pitch.

The BJP's immediate priority is to strengthen its organisational machinery. Under the leadership of Union Home Minister Amit Shah, the party has convened a meeting of its executive committee on October 30 and 31. Apart from drawing up a clear road map for the campaign, the meeting is expected to review the party's organisational structure down to the booth level and establish guidelines for election micro-management, from campaigning to voter mobilisation. Ahead of the meeting, Prime Minister Narendra Modi is scheduled to undertake a two-day visit to Varanasi and Kedarnath on October 24 and 25. Industrial, public and development-related engagements are expected to feature in his itinerary.

According to the proposed schedule, Modi will first visit Varanasi, his Lok Sabha constituency in Uttar Pradesh, before travelling to Kedarnath in Uttarakhand.

In Varanasi, he is expected to inaugurate a factory in the Sevapuri area and attend programmes related to the city's development.

On October 25, the Prime Minister is expected to visit Kedarnath and review the progress of the Kedarnath Corridor development project. He is also likely to take stock of infrastructure and other development works intended to improve facilities at and around the Himalayan pilgrimage centre.

The two-day programme is expected to combine development and public engagements in Uttar Pradesh with a review of infrastructure projects at one of Uttarakhand's most prominent pilgrimage centres.

To counter the BJP, Akhilesh Yadav has stepped up his “BJP hatao” campaign. He has claimed that even Yogi Adityanath's position as Chief Minister is not secure and that farmers and younger voters, among others, will bring about a change in the state. According to the SP chief, the challenges confronting Yogi are mounting, and the people have made up their minds to change the government.

Akhilesh has blamed the BJP for the problems facing the state and argued that they can be resolved only if the party is voted out of power.

He has also accused the ruling party of exploiting religious faith and devotion for political gain. “You can have faith and devotion, but the BJP members are known for playing with people's faith and devotion. You all know how people's faith has been exploited. First, it was people's faith in temples, and now their faith is being exploited for political gains,” he alleged.

The SP chief has also raised concerns over the alleged circulation of voice messages targeting voters. He questioned how BJP leaders had obtained voter lists that were not publicly available to everyone.

“Voter lists are not available to everyone, but they are available to all BJP leaders. Voice messages are being sent, and calls are being made. How did the voter lists reach the ministers in the BJP government?” he asked.

Akhilesh also accused the BJP government of electoral malpractice, alleging that officials in the Education Department, including Basic Shiksha Adhikaris (BSAs) and District Inspectors of Schools (DIOSs), were intimidating voters through phone calls.

He warned that officials found to have engaged in such activities could face legal consequences if evidence emerged against them. He urged the Election Commission to remain impartial and called on government officials to discharge their duties without political interference. Those who act as political agents, he warned, could face imprisonment.

“No one will save you. Today or tomorrow, whenever there is a change, the law will send them to jail,” he said.

As the political temperature rises, some initial surveys reportedly place the BJP ahead of the SP. Psephologists have projected that the SP-led opposition could win around 150 to 170 of the Assembly's 403 seats. Such estimates should be treated cautiously, as their reliability depends on the methodology, sample size and timing of the surveys.

Nevertheless, the BJP is facing political challenges and is keen to avoid complacency. Against this backdrop, the proposed October 30–31 meeting assumes considerable significance. The party's ability to address local grievances, resolve organisational differences and strengthen its booth-level machinery will be central to its preparations for the 2027 contest.

(The author is a former Chief Editor at The Hans India)