Hans News Service Amaravati

AndhraPradesh is leveraging GST and commercial taxes data to develop a real-time mechanism to assess economic activity and estimate Gross Value Added (GVA) across key sectors, commercial taxes department chief commissioner Babu A said. Addressing the 8th Collectors’ Conference, Babu said the GST-based assessment of manufacturing activity indicated 19.6 per cent year-on-year growth up to July, compared with about 18 per cent growth recorded up to the first quarter. The estimated manufacturing GVA stood at around Rs 1.75 lakh crore.

He said the GST-based estimate was closely aligned with the planning department’s first advance estimates, which are based on sample surveys, with a variation of only about 0.6 percentage points. The close correlation demonstrated the potential of GST data for real-time economic assessment, he said.

The commercial taxes department has developed an AI-based analytical methodology to calculate GVA using GST data generated by manufacturing units. E-way bill data is also incorporated to improve accuracy by tracking the movement of goods into and out of the State.

The platform provides district-wise heat maps of manufacturing activity and enables collectors to drill down to individual manufacturing units, including their declared value and contribution to the sector.

Babu said GST returns, largely filed between the 18th and 20th of every month, could provide an early indication of economic activity in the preceding month, paving the way for monthly “nowcasting” of economic growth.

A similar methodology has been developed for the construction sector using GST data from around 65 relevant HSN categories, including cement, iron and steel. The estimated construction GVA was around Rs 1.25 lakh crore, against Rs 1.29 lakh crore estimated by the Planning Department, a variation of about 3.2 per cent.

Real-time assessments have also been undertaken for trade, hotels and restaurants, real estate, communication and broadcasting, while work is underway to cover mining and electricity. Babu said GST and commercial taxes data would also help create a comprehensive database of MSMEs. Data relating to around 20.08 lakh MSMEs has been identified, including about 2.42 lakh in the GSTN system. To cover enterprises outside the GST network, the department is integrating GST information with electricity consumption data and NIC codes. The State Data Lake provides access to around 1.7 crore electricity connections, enabling officials to assess economic activity even among MSMEs not covered by GST turnover data.

He said around 1.21 lakh GST-linked MSMEs were currently inactive, with no reported turnover. District administrations would be able to identify such units and examine the reasons for their inactivity. The system will enable collectors to analyse activity down to the district, mandal and enterprise levels, helping identify businesses and sectors requiring intervention and potential revival. Babu said Andhra Pradesh’s GST-based approach had also received appreciation at a national-level MSME coordination meeting in New Delhi.