Asocial media post by the US Department of Homeland Security has created a furore among Indian immigrants in the North American country. The social media post on platform X had an AI-generated poster featuring ‘Transformers’ character Optimus Prime and a brown man with a written message of “Self-deport or find out”. Just a few days back, the US Department of Labour has suspended Permanent Labour Certification Filings- widely known as PERM- of Cognizant as the US authorities investigate alleged fraud in the immigration programme. PERM is a key route for employers to get employment-based green cards for the foreign workers, whom they bring in to the US for executing project work.

Notably, Cognizant is a Nasdaq-listed company though it was founded by people of Indian-origin. Many believe that the investigation may widen its ambit to other large Indian IT firms in coming days. These two developments in the US shows that anti-immigration sentiment in the US is at its peak.

Surprisingly, most of the hate speech and social media posts are directed at Indians as a major section of Indian immigrants are successful professionals. The MAGA supporter base of Donald Trump is actively flaring such anti-India sentiment. Since the first day of Trump as the President of the US, immigration from India has been facing huge issues.

It began with humiliating eviction of illegal Indians staying in the US. The memory is still fresh how people were deported in planes with their hands and legs tied on chains. Then came a wave of measures restricting movement of professionals through H1B visa route. H1B- the most popular temporary work visa- has seen entry fee raised to around $100,000.

Moreover, procedural delay has crept in. Visa appointments are being cancelled abruptly. Visa application processing is also facing undue delay. Amid such restrictive measures, the visa applications of Indian IT companies have gone down significantly. These measures by the US administration show that Indians are no longer welcome in the US.

For decades, the bright and wealthy in India aspire to work and settle in the US. Given the current measures, it seems the route is slowly getting closed with active discouragement from the US government. Against this backdrop, it is worth evaluating the impact of such a development. For more than three decades, India and the US’ tech industry has been very closely integrated.

From unhindered flow of people to capital, India & US relationship has been built on mutual interest. The ongoing anti-India sentiment is likely to impact that relationship. When companies are no longer allowed to send professionals to the US, they have to shift much of the work back home as the US doesn’t have the required STEM talent.

Moreover, rising people-to-people relationship is responsible for more Indian students opting for higher studies in the US. As restrictions pile up, slowly Indian students are opting for other locations than the US. Though the diplomatic relationship remains strong between India and the US despite irritants, the emerging dynamics in the immigration front will show up in the policy making at some point of time. And that will not be pleasant.

Currently, the Indian startup ecosystem has close relationship with their counterparts in the US. Many leading fund houses of America have been investing billions in India. If anti-India rhetoric continues, decoupling to some extent is expected. All-in-all, derailment of relationship between India and the US may create a lose-lose situation for both nations. In this perspective, some sense of wisdom should prevail among policymakers on both sides.