New Delhi

A growing mismatch between global copper mining and smelting capacity is adding to supply pressures and helping drive copper prices to record levels, the Indian Primary Copper Producers Association (IPCPA) said.

Copper prices on the London Metal Exchange touched a record $14,737 a tonne in September 2026, up nearly 50 per cent over the past year, as expectations of US tariffs, tighter mine supply and sharp shifts in global inventories reshape the market, the association said. Hundreds of thousands of tonnes of copper have been shipped to the United States since the start of the year to take advantage of the price premium between the Comex and LME markets, according to IPCPA.

The US Commerce Department’s report on potential copper import tariffs is nearly two months overdue, but the market continues to price in the possibility of trade restrictions, supporting ele-vated prices, the association said. The prospect of tariffs has triggered a major redistribution of copper inventories.

Comex stocks have surged to a record 6,75,000 tonnes, while inventories in LME warehouses have fallen to critically low levels, tightening the metal availability in other markets, IPCPA said. The resulting concentration of copper stocks in the United States comes as global mine output has been slightly weaker because of operational challenges at three to four major mines, it added.

At the same time, China’s continued expansion of smelting capacity is placing additional pres-sure on an already constrained supply of copper concentrates. That imbalance is being reflected in treatment and refining charges, or TC/RCs - fees paid to smelters to process copper concen-trate.

TC/RCs have fallen to unprecedented levels of around negative $1,300 a tonne, from positive levels of roughly $300-400 a tonne, according to IPCPA. The sharp decline is a sign that smel-ters are facing increasing financial pressure as competition for copper concentrates intensifies, while mining capacity fails to keep pace with expanding global refining and smelting capacity. The divergence between mine supply and smelting capacity is creating a structural constraint in the copper market, rather than simply reflecting a temporary inventory imbalance, IPCPA said. Copper is increasingly viewed as a strategic industrial commodity because of its extensive use in power grids, electric vehicles, renewable energy, construction and other infrastructure associ-ated with electrification and the energy transition.