Ifthere is one region that is perennially in turmoil, it is the Middle East. A cocktail of factors—religious conflicts, disputes between superpowers, and, of course, oil—keeps it in the news all the time. After a lull of a few weeks, with Washington focusing on economic strangulation rather than kinetic action, the region has heated up again, as the US military struck five Iranian oil tankers on Tuesday. This happened, according to the US Central Command (CENTCOM), “after the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) targeted a US Navy warship with ballistic missiles twice over the past two days.” The US warship successfully evaded the attempted Iranian attacks and continued to patrol regional waters. No American personnel were harmed, it added.

There is also a report of Iran firing about 20 ballistic missiles towards Jordan, targeting two US military bases. Meanwhile, the pro-Tehran Houthis in Yemen have also launched ballistic missiles toward Israel. They also launched a wave of attacks on Saudi Arabia on Tuesday, wounding over 70 people and igniting fires at oil facilities and utilities in the kingdom.

Tensions seem to be escalating. It looks like conflict will stay that way for some time. The reason is that US President Donald Trump is unwilling to fight the war all-out, with American troops on the ground. This is in tune with his opposition to the ‘forever wars’ that the US has fought many a time. His core base, the MAGA crowd, hates America’s wars in faraway lands, gobbling up resources and killing young soldiers. Besides, his party, the Republican Party, must face midterm elections soon. At the same time, Trump doesn’t want to let Iran off the hook. Hence the blow-hot-and-cold nature of the ongoing war in the Middle East.

The escalation has affected crude prices, which hit a six-week high. Brent futures are touching the $100 mark. Owing to our heavy dependence on crude imports, the government has changed the composition of its top five suppliers, with Brazil and Venezuela replacing the US and Nigeria. Russia, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) stay the top crude sellers.

The government must chalk out short, middle, and long-term strategies to end or at least curtail the country’s excessive dependence (around 88 per cent) on imported crude. In the short term, the priority should be to diversify sources of supply, build adequate strategic petroleum reserves, and maintain flexibility in purchasing crude from different markets so that geopolitical disruptions do not immediately translate into domestic price shocks. The government should also strengthen bilateral energy partnerships with major oil-producing countries and explore long-term contracts at competitive prices. In the medium run, India needs to accelerate the transition towards cleaner and more efficient sources of energy. Greater investment in electric vehicles, public transport, biofuels, natural gas, solar and wind power can gradually reduce the demand for imported petroleum. At the same time, domestic exploration and production should be encouraged through stable policies, faster clearances and appropriate incentives, without compromising environmental safeguards. The long-term answer lies in reducing the economy’s structural dependence on fossil fuels. India must expand renewable energy, battery storage, green hydrogen, and other emerging technologies. A broader and more resilient energy mix would not only reduce the import bill but also protect the economy from wars, sanctions, and volatile global oil prices