Theyear 2024 marked a significant milestone for global air transport, as passenger traffic reached and exceeded 2019 levels (pre-pandemic), signaling the completion of the extraordinary traffic rebound phase observed in recent years. By 2025, the global aviation industry entered a more mature operating environment, where traffic growth is increasingly shaped by structural demand patterns and regional divergence rather than short-term catch-up effects.

Therefore this establishes a new baseline for global aviation demand. The forecast incorporates the latest analytical insights reflecting lasting changes in travel patterns, differentiated regional performance, evolving passenger behaviour, reconfigured airline networks, and cargo markets increasingly influenced by global trade realignment and supply chain resilience.

By the end of 2025, global passenger traffic reached 9.8 billion passengers, equivalent to 107% of the 2019 level, with 3.6% YoY growth (to be confirmed by ACI World in July 2026). This pace is broadly in line with historical growth trends observed prior to 2020 (2018–2019 growth rate: 3.5%), indicating that the global market has transitioned into a post-recovery phase driven by structural, long-term growth patterns. At the regional and market levels, however, growth outcomes diverge significantly, with some differences more pronounced than in the pre pandemic period.

Between 2024 and 2054, global passenger traffic is expected to grow at a 3% CAGR, more than doubling by the mid-2040s to reach 23.2 billion passengers and rising to roughly 2.5 times the 2024 level by 2054.

According to Airbus, Passenger traffic growth remains resilient. By 2045, the middle class demographic most likely to fly will increase by 1.4 billion people (+34%). Global air traffic is robust and inextricably linked to world economic growth as well as people’s desire to travel. Short term disruptions like regional conflicts and high fuel prices are not dampening demand long term as historic data shows. In the next 20 years, the Airbus GMF forecasts passenger traffic to grow 3.9% annually, thanks to global GDP growth (+2.6%), rising urban populations (+1.3 billion) and increasing middle classes. By 2045, air traffic will more than double, reaching about 10 billion passengers per year.

An IATA report suggest global air passenger traffic is projected to grow by roughly 2.1% to 4.9% in 2026, with regional performance highly uneven due to geopolitical conflicts, longer routing times, and elevated fuel costs. While the Middle East faces deep contractions, the Asia Pacific region—led by robust economic momentum in India and China—remains the primary driver of global passenger growth.

For 2026, we forecast a 4.9% YoY growth in passenger traffic (measured in RPK), led by the Asia Pacific region’s expansion by 7.3%. This marginal deceleration over 2025 is mainly because of persistent supply-side constraints, including limited aircraft availability, and labor shortages. Supply constraints continue to keep load factors at record highs, projected at 83.8%, which in turn supports yields and profits in an otherwise turbulent operating environment. Resilient traffic growth, together with stable yields should allow the industry to top the USD 1 trillion revenues for the first time in 2025.

While artificial intelligence is very much the central theme of the global economy going into 2026, the return of more protectionist trade policies was a dominant concern at the start of 2025. The volatile trade-policy environment has turned out to be less detrimental to the global economy than what was feared earlier this year. However, 2025 would undoubtedly have been a much more stellar year in terms of economic performance had the previous trade policies remained in place.

“Air passenger demand was down 2.2% year-on-year in May on the impact of war in the Middle East. The decline was centered on carriers in the Middle East with a 28.4% year-on-year fall. That’s a significant improvement on the 46.6% decline recorded for April, a sign of the region’s resilience. Notably, we also saw year-on-year contractions in demand in both North America and Asia, largely related to domestic market conditions in the US and China.

Overall, May demand still appeared to be largely resilient in the face of high fuel prices and air fares. While the recent sharp drop in oil prices is an encouraging development, the challenges created by the war will likely persist for some time. Oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain and it is likely to take time before the benefit of lower oil prices is reflected in ‘normalized’ jet fuel pricing. In the meantime, airlines who are operating on a 2.0% margin will have little choice but to continue testing demand resilience with higher fares that attempt to cover elevated fuel costs,” said Willie Walsh, IATA’s Director General.