Thememorandum of understanding (MoU) between the United States and Iran to mark the end of the war in West Asia has been greeted with more than a sigh of relief, all over. Stock markets have welcomed it including, in India whose half of crude imports pass through Strait of Hormuz. The Strait will be “completely open” from Friday, US President Donald Trump declared. It is “partially opened, already. However, there was “hunting” in the area to ensure it was de-mined, he said. This is good news but demining the Strait is easier said than done. The US knows it. On June 2, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio told a Senate Foreign Relations Committee that Iran had “mined large segments of Hormuz—international waters.” Shipping and maritime security experts told a prominent Israeli newspaper that ensuring the Strait of Hormuz is safe from mines could delay a return to normal shipping traffic by weeks.

Conventional minesweepers could be deployed along with state-of-the-art underwater drones, but it may take 40 to 50 days before many insurance, shipping, or oil companies are confident enough to sail through, according to experts. Further, there is still a great deal of uncertainty with the MoU, which is just the beginning of real negotiations. Given the recalcitrant attitude of the clerical regime andhardliner jihadists in Iran, the talks getting derailed at any moment is a distinct possibility. For these people are fired by revolutionary fervour; in their scheme of things, getting nuclear weapons is not a strategic requirement but a doctrinaire imperative. It is to be seen if these people could be reined in by saner elements in Tehran. Then there is Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, who is sulking because of Trump’s insistence to have a deal as quickly as possible. While he has not criticised the MoU, he is certainly not happy; he and his nation will like a regime change in Iran—or, at least, substantive degradation of its military might. To be sure, the degradation of Iran’s armed forces is quite substantive, but Tel Aviv wants more.

In other words, peace will prevail for some time in the Middle East, but it will be fragile. The success of the proposed negotiations will depend on whether Iran’s leadership is willing to make meaningful concessions on its nuclear programme and regional activities. Hardliners within the Iranian establishment may view any compromise as a sign of weakness and seek to obstruct the process. At the same time, domestic political pressures in both the United States and Israel could limit the room for diplomatic manoeuvre. Any perceived violation of commitments, however minor, may trigger renewed tensions. Israel, as we mentioned, remains unconvinced that diplomacy alone can neutralise what it sees as the Iranian threat. Worse, the problem is not just the divergence in objectives between Washington and Tel Aviv; it is also Trump’s temperament and temper, which he loses very often. He even uses four-letter words in public—something no head of state or government has done in recent memory. Therefore, countries like India should not celebrate the MoU too much. It is a good start, but a start, nonetheless. To reduce our dependence on the Strait, we must earnestly start diversifying our fuel supply chains.