Continued from P1

The accompanying cross-equatorial flow, another crucial component of the monsoon engine, has also remained weak. Satellite imagery highlights extensive dry air over the western Indian Ocean, visible aslarge brownish regions on moisture maps.

Meteorologists attribute this to widespread sinking air over the region, a phenomenon that suppresses cloud formation and limits the northward transport of moisture into the Arabian Sea.

The weakness of the Arabian Sea branch of the monsoon has become particularly evident. Normally, this branch delivers heavy rainfall to the west coast, central India and large agricultural regions across Maharashtra, Gujarat and Madhya Pradesh. However, rainfall activity has remained patchy and below normal in many of these areas.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has already warned of prolonged below-normal rainfall across the country’s crucial “monsoon core zone,” which includes central, western and peninsular India, regions that account for a substantial share of the nation’s agricultural output.

There are, however, some encouraging signs on the horizon. Forecast models indicate that cross-equatorial winds may strengthen during the next two weeks. Meteorologists also expect the Somali Jet to intensify, potentially drawing larger amounts of moisture into the Arabian Sea and reviving monsoon activity over India.

Forecast guidance suggests humidity levels could begin increasing within the coming week, with a more significant monsoon revival possible toward the end of June.