K Varaprasada Rao Amaravati

AndhraPradesh’s kharif season has slipped into a deep agrarian crisis, with a prolonged rainfall deficit leaving thousands of farmers staring at crop losses after spending heavily on sowing, fertilisers, pesticides and labour.

The state received 32.92 per cent less rainfall than normal between June 1 and September 27, with the deficit widening to 45.10 per cent in Rayalaseema and 21.64 per cent in Coastal Andhra. The situation was even more severe until early September, when the cumulative deficit stood at 55.45 per cent. But the late rains brought by a depression over Coastal Andhra have improved the seasonal rainfall position on paper, but they have come too late for many dryland farmers. In North Andhra, the heavy rains have instead damaged standing paddy, groundnut, banana and vegetable crops.

The scale of the agricultural setback becomes clearer when Andhra Pradesh is compared with the rest of the country. By September 23, cultivation nationally had reached 100.57 per cent of the normal area, while Telangana had covered 95 per cent. Andhra Pradesh had managed only 83 per cent, with 63.24 lakh acres under cultivation against the projected 76.2 lakh acres.

Farmers followed the diversification advice, but the rain-fed gamble failed. Due to the El Nino effect, the government has repeatedly urged farmers to reduce paddy cultivation and move towards less water-intensive, rain-fed crops. Yet paddy still accounts for 32.86 lakh acres, or 52 per cent of the State’s total cultivated area, because large tracts of the delta and other irrigated regions remain structurally dependent on paddy during kharif. The crops that were expected to provide an alternative-groundnut, pulses, cotton, maize and millets- are now among the worst affected. Groundnut was cultivated on only 4.13 lakh acres, 43 per cent of its normal area. Cotton covered 10.80 lakh acres, maize 3.1 lakh acres and pulses 9.41 lakh acres. The sowing window for groundnut and cotton has already closed, leaving little scope for farmers to recover the season through fresh planting.

Four districts — Kurnool, Anantapur, Nandyal and Sri Sathya Sai — alone accounted for 23.75 lakh acres, nearly 38 per cent of the state’s cultivated area. These are predominantly rain-fed farming regions. June showers encouraged farmers to sow, but the rains largely disappeared in July and August, when the standing crops needed them most.

The consequences are visible in the cultivation figures. Prakasam managed only 27 per cent of its projected area, Annamayya 33 per cent, Anakapalli 36 per cent, Chittoor 36 per cent, Markapuram 37 per cent, Polavaram 38 per cent and Palnadu 66 per cent. In several of these districts, farmers had already incurred expenditure on land preparation, seed, fertiliser, pesticides, labour and lease rents before the crops began to fail.

However, El Nino warning adds to the uncertainty over the next season. The crisis has also exposed the vulnerability of Andhra Pradesh’s farm economy to a changing rainfall pattern. The State government had already warned farmers about the possibility of El Nino-related weather risks, urging caution in crop planning and water use. That warning has acquired greater significance as the current season has unfolded with long dry spells punctuated by intense rainfall.

Chief Minister N Chandrababu Naidu had told the Assembly on August 17 that Andhra Pradesh was receiving rainfall at a level far below the national average.

The latest rainfall figures underline the warning. Annamayya recorded a deficit of 63.12 per cent, Sri Sathya Sai 56.10 per cent and Prakasam 56.75 per cent. Five other districts recorded deficits between 40 per cent and 49 per cent. Under the IMD classification, rainfall between -20 per cent and -59 per cent is considered deficient, while -60 per cent or below is classified as scanty.

A recent study by scientists from the India Meteorological Department and the National Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasting, covering weather extremes over India from 1971 to 2022, has also identified South Peninsular India as the region showing the strongest drought trend. Andhra Pradesh is among the eastern coastal States identified as a pronounced drought hotspot. For Andhra Pradesh, the immediate problem is therefore not simply a shortage of rain. It is the collision of failed dryland crops, inadequate irrigation support, depleted groundwater, rising cultivation costs and increasingly erratic rainfall.

The state’s farm economy has entered a season in which farmers spent money to sow when the rain came- and lost the crop when the rain stopped. Now, when the rain has finally returned, it is damaging crops that survived.