Aninteresting aspect of the war in West Asia is that now both sides can declare victory—with some justification. From the perspective of the United States and Israel, the primary objectives were met in the first few days—many of them within hours, when the belligerent allies eliminated Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and a section of the political and military top brass. While the Iranian armed forces are resisting the US-Israel attacks, their capabilities have been seriously degraded. The Iranians may have shot down US aircraft but that is an exception rather than the rule; they have control over their airspace. US President Donald Trump has already claimed victory. He wrote in a social media post, “The reason for doing so [accepting Pakistan-brokered ceasefire] is that we have already met and exceeded all Military objectives, and are very far along with a definitive Agreement concerning Longterm PEACE with Iran, and PEACE in the Middle East. We received a 10-point proposal from Iran, and believe it is a workable basis on which to negotiate (sic)”

Iran’s 10-point conditions that the US finds “workable” include: non-aggression; continuation of Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz; acceptance of enrichment; lifting all primary sanctions; lifting all secondary sanctions; termination of all Security Council resolutions; termination of all International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Board of Governors resolutions; payment of compensation to Iran; withdrawal of US combat forces from the region; and cessation of war on all fronts, including against the heroic Islamic Resistance of Lebanon. This gives Iran reason to claim that it has been able to withstand the sustained assault by the world’s mightiest military, in alliance with the regional power, Israel, for more than a month. Trump’s vow to bomb Iran’s power plants and send the country “back to the stone ages” notwithstanding, Tehran’s enemies have not been able to force open the Strait of Hormuz. Trump’s warnings became chillier; just before 12 hours of his ultimatum expired, he posted a warning on social media: “A whole civilization will die tonight.” The clerical regime, however, refused to blink, leading to a two-week ceasefire. If the war ends after the culmination of the ceasefire on as-is-where-is basis, it will be a victory of the US-Israel alliance, for they will have militarily truncated a powerful regime in the Middle East which has been spreading jihad all over the world. Regime change would have been the icing on the cake, but Trump would still be happy because he achieved the goals with negligible American casualties. Ditto with Israel. Iran, on the other hand, has lost the deadly nuclear and other capabilities, which it had till a few months ago. Rebuilding degraded military capabilities, restoring deterrence, and reviving its nuclear programme—if it chooses to do so—will require time, resources, and a degree of strategic patience that may test the regime internally. The economic toll, compounded by sanctions and wartime destruction, will further constrain its options. In this sense, even as Tehran claims moral and political victory, it does so from a position of significantly diminished capacity. What remains uncertain is whether this uneasy equilibrium marks the beginning of a more stable regional order—or merely an interlude before the next, perhaps more dangerous, confrontation.